[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 102345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N36W TO 5N38W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N66W TO 2N66W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT RESIDES OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 63W-67W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 26N79W TO 18N78W MOVING WEST
AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE HAS LOST MOST OF ITS ENERGY WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE WEST OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS THROUGHOUT CUBA...BUT IS LIKELY A
RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. NO OTHER DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W
TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N30W
6N40W 3N51W. A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 29W-
32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
WEST ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N103W PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS HELPING SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 92W-95W...AND FROM 21N-
25N BETWEEN 93W-96W. CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MAINLY SOUTHEAST
FLOW IS THROUGHOUT THE AREA RANGING FROM 10 KT IN THE EASTERN
GULF TO 15 KT IN THE NW GULF. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE EXPERIENCING FAIR
CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 75W.
HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 75W
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 61W-72W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY BE ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 66W SOUTH OF 12N.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
25-30 KT WINDS PRESENT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO STAY SOMEWHAT STATIONARY AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-73W. THIS IS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG 75W...WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST WEST OF THE NW BAHAMAS PRODUCING A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 25N77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
IS DOMINATED BY ONE LARGE AND BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1027 MB HIGH NEAR 31N47W. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT A FEW UPPER LOWS ARE PRESENT. THE
FIRST UPPER LOW IS NEAR 24N73W WITH AXIS CONTINUING INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS HELPING PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND. THE SECOND UPPER LOW
IS NEAR 23N52W...AND IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N-24N
BETWEEN 46W-53W. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY
INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

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