[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N31W TO 7N35W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA ON ENHANCED
MOISTURE UP TO 16N ON THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N64W TO 02N65W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND W OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 68W-72W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-
14N BETWEEN 63W-67W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS AT 26N68W TO E
JAMAICA AT 18N76W MOVING W AT 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 76W-78W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON EXTENDS FROM SENEGAL AT 11N13W TO 06N19W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N19W TO 05N30W TO 06N40W TO THE COAST OF N
BRAZIL AT 03N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 11W-14W...FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 19W-30W...AND FROM 6N-
10N BETWEEN 48W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH E/W AXIS N OF
30N PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVING W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-24N
BETWEEN 92W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS AT 28N97W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 92W-95W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF. ALSO EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER THE FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 76W-86W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA S OF 14N. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N
FROM JAMAICA. SEE ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER
VENEZUELA. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER E HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 14N E OF 72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W. ALSO EXPECT ADDITION
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOREOVER EXPECT THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE.

HISPANIOLA...

HAITI PRESENTLY HAS FAIR WEATHER WHILE THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR NO
CHANGE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WHILE HAITI ADVECTS SOME
SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. A 1027 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N46W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 23N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CENTER FROM
21N-26N BETWEEN 40W-50W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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