[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 1N TO 4N
BETWEEN 33W AND 36W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N61W TO 6N62W IN EASTERN
VENEZUELA...INTO NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 10N TO 11N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 63W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 25N72W TO 21N73W...ACROSS HAITI...TO 17N73W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
23N73W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TO A WINDWARD
PASSAGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 11N79W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 32N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BETWEEN 68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 83W IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA OF
GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 7N17W AND 5N21W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 5N21W TO 4N31W 2N41W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 4N
TO 7N BETWEEN 9W AND 12W...FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W
AND 26W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE
EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...TO AN ELONGATED NORTHEAST-
TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N96W ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.
THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO MEXICO NEAR 21N104W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTH-
EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 92W
AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS
THE AREA FROM 22N IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO 31N IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 86W AND 100W...INCLUDING
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N85W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N18W...TO 32N32W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N45W...TO A SECOND 1027 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N58W...TO
32N70W...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 29N81W...
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N91W...TO COASTAL MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W.

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN FALFURRIAS
TEXAS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE NEW ORLEANS
METROPOLITAN AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...IN
GULFPORT AND BILOXI IN MISSISSIPPI...AND IN GULF
SHORES ALABAMA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE MILE OR LESS...AND
SOME PRECIPITATION ARE IN FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF
PERRY. THE LOW CLOUD CEILING THAT WAS BEING REPORTED
IN NAPLES FLORIDA DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS
HAS BROKEN UP...ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS THERE.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...
KDLP OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...KCRH...AND AT KEIR.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KGUL...KHQI...AND KATP.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 25N72W TO 21N73W...ACROSS HAITI...TO 17N73W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
23N73W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TO A WINDWARD
PASSAGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 11N79W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 32N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BETWEEN 68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 83W IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW AND MULTILAYERED
MOISTURE COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO...AND JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 55W AND
70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS ALONG 10N FROM LAKE MARACAIBO
IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...BEYOND COSTA RICA...INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N
TO PANAMA BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND THE PANAMA
COAST NEAR 80W...TO THE SOUTH OF 11N75W 12N85W FROM
COLOMBIA INTO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...FROM 7N TO 8N
BETWEEN 82W AND 83W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
9.5N85W ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF
COSTA RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
9 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
70W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN
72W AND 82W.

HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 25N72W TO 21N73W...ACROSS HAITI...TO 17N73W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
23N73W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TO A WINDWARD
PASSAGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 11N79W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO
AND JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND
32N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 68W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND 83W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

THE 700 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AT THE END
OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AT 500 MB. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AT 250 MB. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES FROM
A 29N17W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N26W...
TO A 28N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 23N52W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 38W AND 60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N
TO 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N18W...TO
32N32W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
32N45W...TO A SECOND 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N58W...TO 32N70W...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NEAR 29N81W...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N91W...TO COASTAL MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 74W TO THE
SOUTH OF 26N. EXPECT 20 KNOTS OR LESS WIND AND 9 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 20N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE TO 64W.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N.
EXPECT 20 KNOTS OR LESS WIND AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
10N TO 18N TO THE WEST OF 55W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOTS OR
LESS WIND AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 14N TO 20N TO THE
EAST OF 41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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