[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081814
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 43.6N 68.8W AT
08/1500 UTC ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF PORTLAND MAINE...OR ABOUT
265 MI...430 KM WSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MOVING NE AT 34 KT.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 40 KT WITH 50 KT GUSTS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. A GALE WARNING IS
POSTED OFF THE MAINE COAST. SEE THE LAST 1500 UTC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
LAST 1500 UTC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL EXTENDS FROM 09N48W TO
00N49W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
AXIS...AND THE AREA OF MOIST SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
EXTENDS WELL N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 44W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 21N62W TO
14N63W MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. THE
METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
TO THE W AND S OF THE WAVE AXIS. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 55W-63W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
09N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N20W TO 05N30W TO 05N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 19W-43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 44W-52W...AS MENTIONED
IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SW LOUISIANA TO CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 93W-96W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE
GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 85W-90W MOST LIKELY DUE TO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N GUATEMALA PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE SURFACE FRONT TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
SHOWERS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. MOREOVER EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA
RICA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-
11N BETWEEN 75W-85W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W HONDURAS...AND BELIZE. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SAN JUAN RADAR SHOWS SPARSE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS N...E...AND S OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF HISPANIOLA. FINALLY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY HISPANIOLA HAS FAIR WEATHER HOWEVER SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE BY SUN MORNING. THE GFS THTAE
OUTPUT ALSO SHOWS PRECPITATION FOR SUN MORNING AND SUNDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS FORECAST TO MOVE W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW
CENTER. THIS WILL ALSO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION FOR HISPANIOLA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N47W. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N31W TO 28N31W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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