[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 40.1N 73.8W AT
08/0600 UTC ABOUT 113 NM WSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS OR 30 NM
WSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND MOVING NE AT 30 KT.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 39 KT WITH 50 KT GUSTS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CONNECTICUT TO MAINE.
THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR
THE U.S. EAST COAST TODAY...AND THEN ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA LATE
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N45W TO 1N49W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AND AN AREA OF MAXIMUM
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 41W-49W AS INDICATED BY
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION OF THE WAVE
LOOKS MORE ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 44W-
48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N WITHIN 170 NM
WEST OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N58W TO 11N59W MOVING W-NW AT 20 KT
AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
DECREASE WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. A TONGUE OF LIGHT MOISTURE
EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF THE WAVE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 48W-62W.
THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DRY
IN THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...PARTICULARLY N OF 17N
AND NW OF THE WAVE. THIS DRY AIR IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION OF
THE WAVE WHICH IS DEPICTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A LINE OF
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO
10N18W 06N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 06N22W TO 04N34W 04N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 16W-
21W AND WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING. OVER THE NW
GULF...THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 36N80W WHICH TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL TEXAS. ITS ALSO SUPPORTS A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N94W TO 28N96W 26N97W WHICH
ALONG WITH MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 93W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS MOISTURE AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NE OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N90W TO
21N92W 17N92W. OTHERWISE...WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT
DOMINATE THE BASIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
A PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERS IN THE SE GULF
WITHIN THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WHILE A NARROW INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS SW IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM LA HISPANIOLA ALL THE WAY TO PANAMA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS WELL AS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN PROVIDING
FOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SE GULF EXTENDS OVER THE WEST
CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN
THIS REGION IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER BELIZE ALSO EXTENDING 100 NM OFF ITS COAST. IN
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE S OF 11N AND ARE ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
WHICH AXIS EXTENDS OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. A TROPICAL
EASTERLY WAVE IS FAST APPROACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN BRINGING SOME
CONVECTION WITH IT. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE
OF 15-20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NE CARIBBEAN DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
EXTENDS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITHIN 24 HOURS. CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS REGION MAY BE MARGINAL AS SAL DRY AIR IS
LIMITING THE CONVECTION IN ITS ENVIRONMENT.

HISPANIOLA...
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS TO THE ISLAND. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS A NARROW INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM LA
HISPANIOLA ALL THE WAY TO PANAMA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH IS FAVORING
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE... EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND. WITHIN 48 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BE NORTH OF THE
ISLAND POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME RAINSHOWERS WITH IT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED BETWEEN MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
23N78W. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 77W N OF
23N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 32N31W TO 28N30W
WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF
THE SW NORTH ATLC...ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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