[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 34.4N 79.5W AT 07/1500
UTC ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF FAYETTEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA... OR
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM W OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NE AT
24 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MI TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
SOME OUTER RAINBANDS OF ANDREA ARE OVER WATER TO THE EAST OF
VIRGINIA WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR ANDREA DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NE. ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N52W TO 12N53W MOVING WNW AT 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AXIS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 49W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N40W TO 1N40W MOVING W AT 5 KT. THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN ITS VICINITY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
8N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
8N18W TO 3N30W TO 5N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERRED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 8W-18W...AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 21W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TRAILING CONVERGENGE ZONE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS OVER THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO AND S FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 82W-86W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 87W-90W. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF
FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO S OF CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OUTSIDE OF THE SE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE AND CONTINUED CONVECTION TO BE OVER S
FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N89W TO 19N88W PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 87W-90W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER W
CUBA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N75W IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER W CUBA AND N
FLOW OVER HISPANIOLA. FURTHER E...SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS AGAIN
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A TRAILING CONVERGENGE ZONE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS OVER THE
N BAHAMAS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N
BETWEEN 74W-80W. A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N43W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SMALL SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 33N29W TO 28N29W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC...AND NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net