[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 070836
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013
500 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013

ANDREA IS RAPIDLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MOST OF THE RAIN
IS NOW DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE IS AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR BETWEEN THE CENTER AND A CONVECTIVE BAND TO
THE EAST. BUOY AND RADAR DATA STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KNOTS....BUT THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER WATER IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANDREA IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS INTO A POST-
TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY.

ANDREA HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 23 KNOTS EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW
AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE FURTHER AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THIS
SOLUTION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS OR SO.

BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS
MORNING...AND THAT THE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT ANY
HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO
NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WARNING PRODUCTS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 32.4N  80.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 35.0N  78.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  08/0600Z 39.5N  73.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  08/1800Z 43.5N  67.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/0600Z 46.5N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/0600Z 46.0N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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