[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 062355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 29.8N 83.0W AT 07/0000
UTC OR 15 NM NNE OF CROSS CITY FLORIDA AND 40 NM W OF
GAINESVILLE FLORIDA MOVING NE AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22N84W TO 31N77W. ANDREA IS FORECAST
TO TRACK NE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN CONTINUE NE ALONG THE EASTERN U.S.
COAST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N47W TO 18N46W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15
KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N47W
LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 40W-50W.
THIS AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE CORRESPONDS WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 42W-46W...AND
FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 46W-48W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
06N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N21W TO 05N23W TO 06N27W TO 05N36W TO 03N40W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 04W-15W...AND FROM
01N-06N BETWEEN 15W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN CUBA N-NE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. WHILE ANDREA MOVES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING...IT REMAINS LOCATED
EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG 87W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 26N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W TO
18N91W. CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANDREA IS
FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...MOSTLY DRY AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...AS ANDREA
MOVES NE OF THE BASIN...BY LATE SATURDAY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE AS RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE GULF PROVIDING FOR LIGHT E-SE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR 15N89W TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED JUST
NORTH OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77W AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC.
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS TROPICAL STORM
ANDREA CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST...REMNANT SURFACE TROUGHING
EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 18N W OF 83W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
INCREASES IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS THIS EVENING AS LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT OVER
CUBA W OF 82W. FARTHER EAST...NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES BETWEEN 70W-81W AND IS PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL
TRANQUIL EVENING FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N60W TO A BASE NEAR 13N70W. MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING NE AWAY FROM THE SOUTH AMERICAN
CONTINENT...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REMAINS
PRECIPITATION-FREE AND VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THEREAFTER...THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND WILL PROVIDE FOR AN OVERALL STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. LOOKING AHEAD...E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND INITIATING ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING NORTHEAST OVER THE SE
CONUS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PART OF BROADER TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. AND IS CREATING A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 74W...INCLUDING INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...FLORIDA KEYS...AND FLORIDA
STRAITS THIS EVENING. AS ANDREA TRACKS TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DUE TO THE
AREA OF MAXIMUM DIFFLUENCE AND CONTINUED S-SE SURFACE FLOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 36N42W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE HIGH SW TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N78W. THIS RIDGE REMAINS
FAIRLY EXPANSIVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WITH THE ONLY
AREA OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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