[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 29.0N 83.6 AT 06/1800 UTC
OR ABOUT 30 NM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA...AND 85 NM ESE OF
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MOVING NE AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. ONE MAIN RAIN BAND IS WRAPPING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 85W-87W...AND FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 82W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 78W-83W. ANDREA
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOMORROW AND
SATURDAY. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N45W TO 9N46W MOVING WEST
NEAR 12 KT. A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N46W WHERE CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOST CONCENTRATED.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A NORTHWARD SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 43W-
46W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 6N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 6N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG
7N31W 6N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
14W-19W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IN THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
PROVIDING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SE GULF FROM
22N-24N BETWEEN 85W-87W...AND FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 82W-85W.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 85W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR
MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 89W...WHICH IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENT ALOFT OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF NEAR ANDREA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH
IS HELPING PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANDREA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY AND QUICKLY MORE NE OF
THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE
GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK
IN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING IMPACTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 85W-87W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ALONG A LINE FROM 17N83W TO
12N81W...AS WELL AS NORTH OF PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 81W-83W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WHICH IS THE RESULT OF MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A LARGE
AREA OF DUST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20 KT DOMINATES THE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...
NO SHOWERS ARE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. SEVERAL STATIONS
OVER THE ISLAND ARE REPORTING DUST...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SOME MAY STILL DEVELOP...BUT WILL BE LESS
THAN NORMAL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LIKELY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR T.S.
ANDREA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WEST OF 76W...AS WELL AS NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 67W-73W. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 79W-
80W. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA
AS ANDREA MOVES OVER NE FLORIDA AND UP THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...BOTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS...IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1029 MB HIGH NEAR 36N42W. ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR
23N56W...BUT IS NOT CAUSING ANY ACTIVE WEATHER. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES THE PATTERN ALONG 30W SUPPORTING THE BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA
OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 46W SOUTH
OF 24N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net