[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061208
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA AT 06/1200 UTC IS NEAR
27.7N 85.1W. THE POSITION IS ABOUT 140 NM TO THE WEST
OF TAMPA FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA. ANDREA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS THE AREA FROM
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS THAT ARE ADJACENT TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM 24N TO
30N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W...AND FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W TO THE
SOUTH OF 18N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN
40W AND 46W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
6N19W 5N26W AND 1N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG IN CLUSTERS
TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 20W...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 6N
TO 10N TO THE WEST OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...AND
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 88W. THIS AREA IS
AWAY FROM THE AREA THAT IS BEING AFFECTED BY T.S. ANDREA.

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON
AND AT PORT LAVACA IN TEXAS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR
LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS.
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN LAKE CHARLES
LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE BEING
OBSERVED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO PUNTA GORDA.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATIONS KDLP
OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...AND KGVX AND KMZG OFF
THE TEXAS COAST. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...AND THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
WITHIN 0 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...WITHIN 90 NM
IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 120 NM IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SEA HEIGHTS 12 FEET OR GREATER
ARE WITHIN 120 NM IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE...WITHIN 0 NM
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 60 NM IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...WITH SEA HEIGHTS TO 18 FT.
ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N
TO THE EAST OF 86W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS HEIGHTS
FROM 8 TO 11 FEET.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...BEYOND 32N79W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO
9N79W IN COASTAL PANAMA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
INTO WESTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 6N IN COLOMBIA TO 10N BETWEEN
LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 75W IN COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL
OF SECTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA FROM THE GULF OF URABA
TO 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS AND
FROM 11.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W.

HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WIND REGIME IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THAT RUNS FROM
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA...BEYOND 32N79W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
BAHAMAS BETWEEN 68W AND 80W.

THE 700 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE PATTERN CHANGES
GRADUALLY AFTER 24 HOURS...TRENDING INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 500 MB GFS SHOWS THAT NORTH-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW PASS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF
A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE/ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE WEST. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 36N42W...THROUGH 32N53W...TO 26N64W AND 23N71W...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 18N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N22W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 45W/46W
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 16N WITHIN 120 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO BE TO THE NORTH OF 12N WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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