[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050605
TWDAT

ZCZC MIAWRKMT3 ALL
TTAA00  050605

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA...ALONG 90W...INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N89W...INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND NORTHEASTERN GUATEMALA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
IN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST
OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN WESTERN CUBA...TO THE WEST OF 80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE SOUTH-
EASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH OF
28N TO THE EAST OF 88W.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND BEGINS
TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY. IT IS LIKELY
THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND IN
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N38W 9N41W...
TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 8N41W...
TO 5N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W FROM
12N TO 18N. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
TROUGH IS ALONG 25N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 21N65W
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N68W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 17N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN
70W AND 72W...AND FROM 21N TO 22N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 19N
BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 80W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA OF
SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
10N20W TO 5N32W AND 7N39W...TO 6N43W 4N49W...TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 2N TO
10N BETWEEN 5W AND 34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 44W AND 59W...
INCLUDING IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NORTHERN GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 88W. THIS AREA
EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL GULF OF
MEXICO TROUGH...AND WESTWARD.

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
REPORTED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA...INLAND
FROM THE COAST. BROKEN TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER
THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. CLOUD
CEILINGS OF 9500 FEET AND 11000 FEET COVER FORT MYERS
FLORIDA. LIGHT RAIN IS IN PUNTA GORDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATION KDLP THAT IS
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 05/0000 UTC...ARE 1.35 IN TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN.

PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...AND THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH FROM 29N90W
TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N89W...
TO 19N89W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
WEST OF 83W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE
EAST OF 86W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N77W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS CUBA TO THE WEST OF 80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 88W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST
OF 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS
PANAMA...THROUGH COSTA RICA...INTO CENTRAL NICARAGUA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN CLUSTERS
COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG REMAINS
FROM THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 68W.
EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST
OF THE WAVE TO 74W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR
LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM
13N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.

HISPANIOLA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W FROM
12N TO 18N. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
TROUGH IS ALONG 25N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 21N65W
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N68W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 17N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN
70W AND 72W...AND FROM 21N TO 22N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 19N
BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 80W.

THE 700 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND THEN IN A RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THAT. THE 500 MB GFS SHOWS
THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST
SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. HISPANIOLA WILL RECEIVE NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW AT 250 MB...BEING IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE/ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO THE WEST. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N14W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO
24N20W AND 16N31W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO
30N29W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N29W TO
28N33W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 35N48W...TO 30N60W TO 29N69W...TO FLORIDA NEAR
27N82W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 80W...
AWAY FROM THE 32N28W 28N33W COLD FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 41W TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 14N. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 13N WITHIN 120 NM TO THE WEST OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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