[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 042352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE GULF OF MEXICO ANALYZED FROM
29N89W TO 24N89W TO 19N89W. THE AREA FOCUSED AROUND THE SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE...BUT NO CLEAR
DEFINED LOW CENTER HAS FORMED AT THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME.
CONVECTION IS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
COVERS A LARGE AREA OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NW
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N-29N BETWEEN 79W-88W...INCLUDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N41W TO 14N35W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN
36W-43W. THIS AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 37W-
44W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N67W TO 19N66W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 10N-
23N BETWEEN 64W-70W. THE WAVE IS ALSO LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N62W TO 15N68W. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG WITH MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 62W-67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
09N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N18W TO 04N33W TO 07N39W TO 05N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-11N BETWEEN 14W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 29W-34W...AND FROM 04N-06N
BETWEEN 50W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 30N92W TO A BASE NEAR 22N88W.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE GULF W OF 90W...
IS UNDER DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...HOWEVER E OF 90W
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A CURVED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
ANALYZED AT 04/2100 UTC FROM 29N89W TO 25N89W TO 19N89W. THIS
AREA OF VERY BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...WHICH EXTENDS
NORTHWARD INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE COASTAL GULF PLAINS
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY EAST OF 88W
WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN CUBA.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY BROAD IN NATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION BY LATE
THURSDAY WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS REMAINING STRONG E-SE WINDS ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN LOW CENTER AND DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN WHICH TO GENERATE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWER AND
TSTM ACTIVITY FOR THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ALONG 90W AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING. THIS DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING FOR CONTINUED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING PRIMARILY N OF 15N W OF
81W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO REGION WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND CONTINUE TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND CONTINUING CONVECTION FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
WESTERN CUBA. BETWEEN 68W-80W...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT WHICH IS KEEPING CONDITIONS
FAIRLY STABLE AND TRANQUIL THIS EVENING CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING.
HOWEVER...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE GOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AS PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND STABILITY INITIATED CONVECTION OVER LAND. WITH THE DOMINATE
FLOW NORTHERLY ALOFT MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THIS EVENING ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COASTS
OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. FINALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION NEAR 25N62W TO
A BASE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N69W. THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W IS CONTINUING
TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN
61W-67W ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. LOWER LATITUDE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
S OF 12N BETWEEN 62W-69W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
VENEZUELA.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST.
ONCE THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL CARIBBEAN
SEA WATERS...THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AS NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND WILL PROVIDE FOR AN OVERALL STABLE
OVERNIGHT ENVIRONMENT. LOOKING AHEAD...AN APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 67W IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERE LIES OVER MUCH OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
W OF 67W. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 70W.
OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N50W WITH AXIS
EXTENDING W-SW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W.
FARTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
AXIS FROM 31N56W TO 18N66W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
26N56W TO 18N66W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE 1028
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N50W. FINALLY...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED INTO THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR
32N28W AND EXTENDS SW TO 29N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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