[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N88W TO
19N90W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOST CONCENTRATED NEAR 25N89W...BUT
NO CLEAR DEFINED LOW CENTER HAS FORMED YET. CONVECTION IS
LOCATED ONLY EAST OF THE TROUGH...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 87W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 83W-87W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 80W-87W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N35W TO 9N37W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT.
THE WAVE LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THERE IS ALSO A
CLEARING IN THE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST THAT IS NORTH...WEST...AND
NOW EAST OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB
TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 36W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N64W 12N65W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. IT ALSO IS JUST
WEST OF A LARGE AREA OF DUST THAT EXTENDS AROUND THE EASTERNMOST
WAVE AND CONTINUES TO ABOUT 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 61W-67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N15W TO 8N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 8N19W AND CONTINUES TO
5N33W AND PICKS UP IN THE WEST SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
8N40W 5N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN
13W-18W...FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 22W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM NEAR 29N88W TO 19N90W.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF 28N EAST OF 88W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. AS
THIS MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA COULD RECEIVE LARGE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN. WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...FAIRLY DRY AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT. DRY AIR ALOFT IS SINKING INTO THIS AREA
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 87W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO
PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT REGION OVER THE EASTERN GULF HELPING
SUPPORT THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
LIGHT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXCEPT
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHERE SE FLOW OF 15-25 KT IS
PRESENT. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IMPACTING MUCH
OF THE EASTERN GULF. A SURFACE LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SOUTHEAST
FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THIS AREA AND INTO
THE SE GULF. CURRENTLY...A LARGE BURST OF STRONG
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 83W-87W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 21N-23N
BETWEEN 80W-83W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY DRY IN COMPARISON EXCEPT FOR SOME ACTIVITY
NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE IS ALONG 65W AND SUPPORTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 63W-
67W...INCLUDING AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED ELSEWHERE WITHIN TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25
KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST HAS REACHED THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE
EFFECTS OF THE MOISTURE NEAR THE WAVE. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W.
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NE CARIBBEAN...WHICH
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE NW
CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN UNDER VERY MOIST CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL STILL REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
HISPANIOLA IS FAIRLY DRY FOR THE TIME BEING WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND. AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE DAY
CONTINUES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO WITH AN
INCREASED MOISTURE FIELD THAT HAS REACHED EASTERN HISPANIOLA. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE...WHICH IS STILL EAST OF THE ISLAND. AS THE WAVE MOVES
WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IT COULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF DRY
SAHARAN DUST IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE WAVE AND WILL LIKELY
REACH THE HISPANIOLA BY 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC AROUND A
1029 MB HIGH NEAR 34N50W. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FILTERING OVER INTO THE
FAR WEST ATLC ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WEST
OF 72W. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALSO
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN
61W-68W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG 30N57W TO 19N69W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG 80W
COVERS THE FAR WEST ATLC. BROAD UPPER RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 35W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS ALONG 32N20W TO 22N25W...BUT IS NOT CAUSING ANY ACTIVE
WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. SURFACE RIDGING ALSO DOMINATES
THE EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 37N21W. THE
RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER AFRICA
NEAR 18N4W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
EASTERN ATLC AND CONTINUING TO NEAR 64W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


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