[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF GUATEMALA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF
GEORGIA...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 19N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...ACROSS CUBA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND
32N74W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT DRIFTS
GENERALLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ARE LIKELY IN SECTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N33W 9N35W
4N35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 29W AND 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 48W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N63W 15N64W
TO 10N65W ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION MAY PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N15W TO 7N19W 7N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 7N23W TO 8N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 2N TO
10N BETWEEN 5W AND 34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 44W AND 59W...
INCLUDING IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NORTHERN GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 29N83W 26N86W
21N87W. THIS AREA EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...AND WESTWARD.

EDINBURG...HARLINGEN...FALFURRIAS...AND THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN KINGSVILLE ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF
ONE MILE OR LESS WITH FOG. CORPUS CHRISTI IS REPORTING
A LOW CLOUD CEILING. ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON IS REPORTING
A VISIBILITY OF 1.5 MILES WITH FOG. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS COVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND
COASTAL ALABAMA...TO THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN MILTON
FLORIDA...TO PANAMA CITY AND TALLAHASSEE. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS TO MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA
FROM PERRY SOUTHWARD TO THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ICAO STATIONS KMZG AND
KGUL. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 04/0000 UTC...ARE 0.96 IN BERMUDA AND 0.45 IN GUADELOUPE...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN.

PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...AND THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 28N87.5W 17N90W SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...IN THE
SOUTHERN PART...TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 82.5W AND 86W
INCLUDING IN THE ENTRANCE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 26N
BETWEEN 82W AND 86W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N77W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS CUBA TO THE WEST OF 80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 88W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST
OF 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO
PANAMA AND EVENTUALLY WEST CENTRAL NICARAGUA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN CLUSTERS
COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG REMAINS
FROM THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE EASTERLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. EXPECT
25 TO 30 KNOT EAST WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT 20 KNOTS OR LESS WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. ALSO EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST
OF 82W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
24N67W...THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 17N68W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 15N68W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N63W 15N64W
TO 10N65W ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION MAY PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE 700 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 500 MB GFS SHOWS
THAT A TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA...SQUEEZED IN
BETWEEN TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.
THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. A 250 MB
RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND 24 HOURS OR SO.
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 26N21W. A SHEAR
AXIS IS ALONG 26N21W TO 22N36W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N52W.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO 30N65W...AND TO FLORIDA
26N81W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 12.5N TO 18N TO THE WEST OF 57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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