[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N32W 5N37W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THERE IS ALSO A
CLEARING IN THE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST THAT IS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE WAVE. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH ALSO HAS A NE TO SW TILT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N60W 9N61W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. IT ALSO IS JUST WEST OF A LARGE AREA
OF DUST THAT EXTENDS AROUND THE EASTERNMOST WAVE AND CONTINUES
TO ABOUT 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 59W-62W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 58W-63W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 8N21W AND CONTINUES TO 8N30W. IT
PICKS UP ON THE WEST SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 5N40W 4N51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 12W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM NEAR 27N87W TO
19N92W...AS OF 1500 UTC. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 28N EAST OF 88W. AS THIS
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH....PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
COULD RECEIVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN. NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FAIRLY DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT. DRY AIR ALOFT
IS SINKING INTO THIS AREA AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM ALABAMA TO NEAR 25N91W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO PROVIDING
A DIFFLUENT REGION OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS
ARE HIGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE SW GULF CENTERED NEAR
17N98W. LIGHT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE
TROUGH...EXCEPT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHERE SE FLOW
OF 15 KT IS PRESENT. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
IMPACTING MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SOUTHEAST
FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THIS AREA AND INTO
THE SE GULF. CURRENTLY...A LARGE BURST OF STRONG
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 84W-88W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 20N-23N
BETWEEN 80W-84W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...AND FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
82W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY DRY IN
COMPARISON WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE IS
BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THE WAVE IS ALONG 61W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UP TO 120 NM EAST OF THE AXIS.
ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED OVER
THE NW CORNER. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NE
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN UNDER VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD BRINGING
MOISTURE WITH IT.

HISPANIOLA...
HISPANIOLA IS FAIRLY DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND. AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE DAY CONTINUES. LOOKING
AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES
MOVING AT AROUND 15 KT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
LIKELY REACH THE ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND WILL
INCREASE THE CHANGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DESPITE BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERING THE WEST ATLC AROUND A
1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N54W...HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL
PRESENT. SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARDS
THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS
HELPING SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF 28N WEST OF 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 65W IS ALSO
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN
70W-74W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 63W-70W. THE
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 41W. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER THE AREA ALONG 32N21W TO 23N38W SUPPORTING THE TAIL
END OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N37W TO 30N40W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1024
MB HIGH NEAR 37N23W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST
AFRICA NEAR 18N4W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING
AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLC AND CONTINUING TO
NEAR 58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


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