[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031234
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N33W 9N34W
6N35W. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT HAS BEEN
SHOWING THAT THIS WAVE IS BEING ENGULFED BY SAL DRY AIR.
THE METEOSAT-9 PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SHOWING A BROWN HAZE OVER THE NORTHERN REGION OF THIS
WAVE...WHICH INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF SAL DUST.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N57W 8N59W
ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING
PRODUCT HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT THIS WAVE IS AHEAD OF THE
SAL OUTBREAK SPREADING OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT IS PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 17N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER AREA OF
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 9N24W. THE ITCZ IS DISJOINTED...AND RUNS
FROM 4N34W TO 3N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N
TO THE EAST OF 30W...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 11N27W 6N38W 5N45W 9N56W 12N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
EAST TEXAS...THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO
MEXICO NEAR 26N102W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS TEXAS TO THE EAST OF 99W...AND
THE GULF WATERS TO THE WEST OF 90W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N91W...TO 18N93W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO FORM BY 24 HOURS...
AND BE NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO GUATEMALA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
IS ALONG 100W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. REMNANT RAINSHOWERS
STILL ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N54W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 30N79W...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

PORT ISABEL TEXAS IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING.
THE NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT AIRPORT IS REPORTING A CLOUD
CEILING NEAR 7500 FEET. PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI IS
REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES WITH FOG. VARIABLE
LOW CLOUD AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO PERRY FLORIDA. THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN KEY WEST IS REPORTING A HIGH CLOUD
CEILING. MARATHON KEY IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING
WITH RAIN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM
4900 FEET TO 7500 FEET FROM SARASOTA FLORIDA SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE
GENERAL AIRPORT IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3/4 OF
A MILE WITH FOG. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ICAO STATIONS KCRH...KECH...
KGUL...KEIR...KMYT...KSPR...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...AND THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A DEVELOPING 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO BE NEAR 24N88W. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 22N TO
26N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 78W AND 88W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
CENTRAL AMERICA TO HONDURAS AND EASTERN GUATEMALA. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR
THE BORDER WITH PANAMA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W...
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTERN
NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO EASTERN HONDURAS...AND IN A LINE
FROM THE CENTRAL HONDURAS COAST TO TO THE COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE EASTERLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. EXPECT
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS
OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
WEST OF 85W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 36N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TO 28N69W 24N72W. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY REACHES
HISPANIOLA...BEING TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF PUERTO RICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W.

THE 700 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS A RIDGE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.
THE 500 MB GFS SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE 250 MB
GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE RECEIVING
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HISPANIOLA
APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND
A RIDGE TO THE WEST...AT 250 MB. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 30N27W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N31W
19N39W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N54W...TO 30N79W...INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 17.5N TO THE WEST OF 50W.
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO BE ALONG
39W/40W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9N
TO 14N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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