[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N31W 9N33W
6N34W. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS THAT
THIS WAVE IS BEING ENGULFED BY SAL DRY AIR. THE
METEOSAT-9 PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROWN
HAZE OVER THE NORTHERN REGION OF THIS WAVE...WHICH
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF SAL DUST. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N55W 12N57W...
TO 7N58W ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA. THE METEOSAT-9
SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS THIS WAVE IS AHEAD OF THE
SAL OUTBREAK SPREADING OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT IS PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER AREA OF
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N17W TO 11N20W AND 11N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
11N22W TO 6N43W AND 10N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N
BETWEEN 3W AND 20W...FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 27W AND
30W...FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W...FROM 4N
TO 6N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W...AND FROM 6N TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
EAST TEXAS...THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO
MEXICO NEAR 26N102W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. EARLIER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...THAT WAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 22N97W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...HAS
DISSIPATED. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS TEXAS TO THE EAST OF 99W...REACHING
THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL WATERS FOR ABOUT 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SIMILAR DRY AIR IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 29N82W 26N91W 22N98W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N87W...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO NORTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO FORM BY 24 HOURS...AND BE NEAR THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
COVERS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...INTO THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CENTRAL
AMERICA TO THE NORTH OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS THE EAST CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BELIZE...
THE WESTERN HALF OF HONDURAS...AND NEIGHBORING
EL SALVADOR. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 20N TO WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN
83W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 86W.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA OF THE EASTERNMORE FOUR STATIONS THAT ARE IN
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. FAIR SKIES COVER THE AREA
OF THE WESTERNMORE FOUR STATIONS THAT ARE ALSO IN
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE VISIBILITY AT BAY CITY
TEXAS IS 2 MILES WITH FOG. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT
OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE TEXAS GULF COAST...INTO LOUISIANA...AND INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA...INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND EVEN AS FAR
TO THE EAST AS TALLAHASSEE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ALSO
COVER THE AREA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO SARASOTA...AND
IN MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE ICAO STATION KSPR.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...AND THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A DEVELOPING 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO BE NEAR 24.5N87W. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 20N TO
26N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
CENTRAL AMERICA TO HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. EXPECT
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH
OF 19N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17.5N TO 23N TO THE WEST OF 82W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 36N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TO 26N71W 24N72W. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY REACHES
HISPANIOLA...BEING TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF PUERTO RICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD...WITHIN 240 NM TO
300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
HISPANIOLA TO 25N66W BEYOND 32N63W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W.

THE 700 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS A RIDGE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.
THE 500 MB GFS SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE 250 MB
GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE RECEIVING
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HISPANIOLA
APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND
A RIDGE TO THE WEST...AT 250 MB. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 30N27W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N31W
19N39W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N56W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 17.5N TO THE WEST OF 45W. EXPECT
ALSO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12.5N
TO 16N TO THE EAST OF 40W. THE 48 HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR
A TROPICAL WAVE TO BE ALONG 38W/39W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N.
EXPECT NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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