[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N28W 6N32W MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. THE
WAVE LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THERE IS ALSO A
CLEARING IN THE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST THAT IS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE WAVE. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ REGION FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N54W 9N55W MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. THE
WAVE IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. IT ALSO IS AHEAD OF
A LARGE AREA OF DUST THAT EXTENDS AROUND THE EASTERNMOST WAVE
AND CONTINUES TO ABOUT 54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 54W-58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W
TO 11N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 11N21W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N34W
9N53W. BESIDES NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES...NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 11W-
14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 16W-
20W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 25W-27W...AND FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 49W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SEVERAL AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER ARE THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STARTING IN THE NW CORNER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 89W-98W
CONTINUING INTO LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SE. BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING IN THE SW
GULF. A WEAK 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 19N94W. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST ALONG
25N87W TO 18N92W. MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE IS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
PRESENT THOUGH IN THE SW GULF FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 90W-96W.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO MOVING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 23N-
25N EAST OF 84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS ELSEWHERE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE DOMINANT WIND FLOW IS
SOUTHEASTERLY RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. THE WINDS ARE MORE CYCLONIC
AROUND THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MAY BE STRONGER IN
THE AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
IS THROUGHOUT AROUND BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A BETTER DEFINED LOW
CENTER MAY FORM ALONG THE TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LARGE
BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN
83W-89W IMPACTING EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH FROM 12N-14N
BETWEEN 79W-82W...AND FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 83W-84W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY DRY IN COMPARISON WITH ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20
KT. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED
OVER THE NW CORNER. THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN UNDER VERY
MOIST CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BRING A MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEGINNING TOMORROW.

HISPANIOLA...
MOIST AIR REMAINS OVER AND NEAR HISPANIOLA TO BOTH THE WEST AND
NORTH OF THE ISLAND WITH DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY...ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE ISLAND
MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BUILD AS THE DAY GOES ON. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
REACH THE ISLAND BY 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A TROUGH
AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 26N70W TO 23N75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALSO OVER THE AREA WITH AXIS NEAR 69W PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 62W-71W...AND FROM 22N-
27N BETWEEN 71W-75W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO FROM 23N-25N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. THIS LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TO THE EAST...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL
ATLC AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N53W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FORM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO NEAR 22N40W...BUT IS NOT CAUSING ANY
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE BASIN. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN ATLC AS WELL. IT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WEST AFRICA NEAR 18N12W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DUST OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLC BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND NORTH OF THE EASTERNMOST
TROPICAL WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

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