[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 15N26W TO 4N29W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 5N-
14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 8N47W TO 10N52.W

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 17N16W CONTINUING 11N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 8N28W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 6N31W TO
4N40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE N OF 1N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 11W TO ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 14W-19W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD WEAK UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF S OF 26N E OF 95W WITH
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE THE NEXT FRONT TO ENTER THE
GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE
FAR SE CONUS GIVING THE GULF SE SURFACE FLOW. AN ILL-DEFINED
1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 02/0900 UTC
NEAR 19N94W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N E OF
90W AND S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE N/CENTRAL GULF FROM 27N-29N
BETWEEN 88W-94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER WITH CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E THROUGH TUE
ENABLING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW GULF TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N93W
MON THEN DRIFT N AND INLAND TUE AND WED. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN THE S/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK THEN WILL DRIFT N-NE THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 64W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF 78W TO
OVER THE YUCATAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 82W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH MON BEFORE SHIFTING E TUE. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
W ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TUE AND THEN WILL DISSIPATE WED.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE SW ATLC
S OF 26N W OF 68W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N W OF 67W. AN
UPPER LOW IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA GIVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH BENIGN UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 30N49W. ATLC RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MON BEFORE
SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD TUE. A WEAK TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
E OF BAHAMAS TODAY AND MON THEN DRIFT W THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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