[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA ALONG 16N20W TO 5N24W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THE WAVE
LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING
IMAGERY SHOW AFRICAN DUST SPREADING N OF 12N OVER THE WAVE AXIS
LIMITING THE CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 18W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N48W TO 6N49W MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE
SOUTHERN REGION OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 10N IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP
LAYER OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THERE IS NO SAL DUST ENGULFING THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
WIDELY SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-15N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N16W
AND CONTINUES THROUGH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 13N20W 9N23W 6N33W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 6N33W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N40W
7N47W...THEN RESUMES AFTER WAVE AXIS ALONG 7N51W TO 6N58W.
BESIDES ACTIVITY NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATE THE GULF N OF
23N. THIS REGION IS BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS
SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES. A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED SW IN THE GULF
NEAR 19N93W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND THE
W CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...S OF 21N E OF 92W AND OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN WESTERN CUBA AND
EXTENDS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15
KT ARE THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SW AND SE
GULF AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAIN IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF 79W...OVER CUBA
AS WELL AS LA HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N MOSTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS MOSTLY UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO A
TONGUE OF DRY AIR ALOFT THAT IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. BY 48 HOURS...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL
ATLC WILL HAVE REACHED THE LESSER ANTILLES BRINGING A MOIST
AIRMASS WITH IT.

HISPANIOLA...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN ARE SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
LA HISPANIOLA. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OVER HAITI AND
W OF 70W OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH IS ALSO EAST OF THE ISLAND DRAWING MOIST AIR ALOFT FROM
THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND WEST
ATLC. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS SUPPORTED BY A SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
SURFACE MOISTURE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING IS THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLC
N OF 17N. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERS THE W ATLC
INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM A LOW NEAR 33N68W ARE
SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF 67W.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THIS AREA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAINSHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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