[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA ALONG 18N20W TO 7N22W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE
WAVE LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THERE IS ALSO A
CLEARING IN THE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST THAT IS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE WAVE. FINALLY...THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF POTENTIAL
VORTICITY AT THE 315 KELVIN LEVEL ALONG WITH A 700 MB TROUGH
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 18W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N46W TO 6N47W MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE
WAVE IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. IT ALSO IS AHEAD OF
A LARGE AREA OF DUST THAT EXTENDS AROUND THE EASTERN WAVE AND
CONTINUES TO ABOUT 45W. MODEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS AT THE
315 KELVIN LEVEL ALSO INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF POTENTIAL
VORTICITY IN THE AREA OF THE WAVE...WHICH COINCIDES WITH A 700
MB TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 43W-49W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR
18N16W AND CONTINUES THROUGH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 13N22W 7N27W
6N31W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 6N31W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N45W
6N60W. BESIDES ACTIVITY NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 27W-32W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 37W-44W...AND FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN
50W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SURFACE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADS THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTING SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE SW GULF FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SE GULF FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 85W-90W
WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THE NORTHERN GULF IS UNDER MUCH
CLEARER SKIES INFLUENCED BY DRIER AIR ALOFT NORTH OF 26N. THE
SOUTHERN GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD UPPER RIDGING
WHICH IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS THIS AREA. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. BROAD LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE SW GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LARGE BURST OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN
79W-86W COVERING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICAN COUNTRIES TO NEAR 10N WHERE IT CONTINUES ALONG 10N
TOWARDS NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO DRIER
AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 63W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGING COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N81W.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
BASIN TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION WHERE THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. BY 48
HOURS...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL HAVE REACHED
THE LESSER ANTILLES BRINGING A MOIST AIRMASS WITH IT.

HISPANIOLA...
MOIST AIR REMAINS OVER AND NEAR HISPANIOLA TO BOTH THE WEST AND
NORTH OF THE ISLAND WITH DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS ALSO EAST OF THE AREA DRAWING MOIST AIR ALOFT FROM THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND WEST ATLC.
CURRENTLY...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE ISLAND MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BUILD AS THE DAY GOES ON. A SIMILAR PATTERN
WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE SURFACE FEATURE ACROSS THE WEST
ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N60W. HOWEVER...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA NEAR THE BAHAMAS. HEAVY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 68W-75W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 75W-
80W...AND FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 64W-69W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE WEST ATLC AND CONTINUES INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN NEAR 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THIS UPPER TROUGH AND A SECOND UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST ALONG
33N38W 17N48W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN CENTERED NEAR 17N17W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 44N20W. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST EXTENDS AROUND THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EAST ATLC AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


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