[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 17W FROM 5N-14N
MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 10W-13W...N OF 8N E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA...AND
FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 15W-20W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM
6N-12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY
CONVECTION WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W CONTINUING THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 13N18W
ALONG 7N23W TO 5N29W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
4N33W TO 8N44W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N46W TO
6N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM
OF LINE FROM 4N20W TO 8N26W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 38W-51W...AND S OF 8N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
BETWEEN 51W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF S OF 28N E OF 95W WITH NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE SE CONUS GIVING THE GULF SE SURFACE
FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 01/0300 UTC
EXTENDING FROM 23N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO TO 17N92W. N OF
THE UPPER RIDGE IS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE SE GULF AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N E OF 96W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO...YUCATAN...CUBA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH
SAT BEFORE DRIFTING E THROUGH TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW GULF LATE SUN THEN REACH FROM NEAR THE W
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N93W THEN DRIFT N AND INLAND TUE AND WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 69W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 72W-85W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W ALONG 9N79W TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 11N83W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 73W-80W.
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 81W-87W.
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH MON BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY E ON
TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE
SUN AND WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS W-NW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN MON AND
TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLC TO OVER
HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE TRADE
WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF
17N W OF 70W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N W OF 70W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS COVERED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N70W WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE JUST
TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 18N62W 28N60W TO
BEYOND 32N62W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
BROAD AREA FROM 20N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 59W-70W. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N55W TO 27N58W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH. A 1026 MB HIGH IS IN THE W
ATLC NE OF BERMUDA WITH A 1036 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NE OF THE
AZORES. ATLC RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MON BEFORE SHIFTING
SLOWLY EASTWARD TUE. A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF
THE BAHAMAS SUN AND MON AND DRIFT W THROUGH TUE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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