[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 312342
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE
COAST OF AFRICA.  WHILE THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM HAS DIMINISHED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM
AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.  CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



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