[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 22N17W TO
AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW AT 16N18W TO 11N17W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW
CENTER FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 19W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIOIS FURTHER S FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 15W-20W. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS WITHIN A MODERATE
TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM HAS DIMINISHED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 18N53W TO AN
EMBEDDED 1012 MB LOW AT 14N55W TO 10N56W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT
NE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 49W-54W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 22N79W TO 10N80W
MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 77W-83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
16N17W TO 12N20W TO 10N30W TO 08N38W TO 11N47W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 31W-47W...AND FROM 12N-
16N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA ALONG 30N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N-30N
BETWEEN 85W-90W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E
GULF AND FLORIDA COAST S OF TAMPA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A 1015 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N92W TO 17N93W. MOSTLY 5-10 KT
WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N81W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTERED IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF
THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 82W-84W. A MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 9N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 78W-85W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND E CUBA.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
20N68W. DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. EXPECT EVENING CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA
TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-27N
BETWEEN 76W-80W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N-32N
BETWEEN 65W-80W DUE TO PREFRONTAL CONVECTION. A 1022 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N45W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 26N54W. UPPER LEVEEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 60W-
65W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE W
ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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