[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WEST AFRICA...FROM MAURITANIA
TO SENEGAL TO S OF GUINEA-BISSAU. THE 30/1200 UTC POSITION
REMAINS ALONG 15W/16W BASED ON THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N15W ALONG THE TROPICAL
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-17N BETWEEN 16W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FURTHER S FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 9W-18W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER THAT
TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS. WHETHER THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR
NOT...IT WILL LIKELY BRING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 20N50W TO 6N50W MOVING W
AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 44W-50W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 20N69W TO 9N71W MOVING
W AT 20-25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 68W-70W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 70W-73W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 13N17W TO 10N24W TO 9N40W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
9N40W TO 10N46W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM
10N52W AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST OF N GUYANA AT 8N59W. SESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 28W-30W...AND FROM 4N-
7N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N93W TO
25N95W PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT. MOSTLY 5-10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE GULF. FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE E GULF AND FLORIDA W COAST S OF TAMPA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 22N81W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTERED IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N106W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE TROUGH TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER N
FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-20
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 87W-89W. A
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 9N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N
BETWEEN 75W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS E OF 65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DIFFLUENCE FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND E CUBA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N65W. DIFFLUENCE FROM
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE
TO A TROPICAL WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-27N
BETWEEN 76W-80W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 26N-32N
BETWEEN 62W-74W DUE TO PREFRONTAL CONVECTION. A 1025 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N45W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N39W TO
27N40W PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO A
TROPICAL WAVE. .

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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