[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N44W 10N45W MOVING W
AT 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 40W-45W. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE WAVE
MOVES WESTWARD AND APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. AFTER THAT
TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 21N59W TO A 1013 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 13N57W TO 10N57W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N93W TO
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AT 16N94W TO
10N95W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 8N22W
TO 9N32W TO 8N40W TO 10N43W. AN ITCZ IS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE
FROM 10N48W TO 7N54W TO 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 13W-17W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 25W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 29N90W TO
24N91W PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT. MOSTLY 10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER
THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N92W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTERED IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR
19N99W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N WHILE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE S OF 25N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE TROUGH TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION OVER N FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 86W-89W. A
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 9N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 75W-80W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 80W-85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA AT 19N79W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO THE
S AND E OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N78W TO 22N78W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 75W-79W. A
1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N45W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER. A WEAK 1020 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER.
EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net