[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N42W 15N42W 10N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 36W AND 44W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 13 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES
THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W TO THE SOUTH OF
21N. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 54W AND 63W.

A BAHAMAS-TO-CUBA-TO JAMAICA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N76W...
21N77W 18N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

AN INLAND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N90W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 91W
AND 95W INCLUDING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W 10N25W 10N36W 9N39W 6N43W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 22W AND 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN
43W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N82W OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. A
SURFACE CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO
CUBA NEAR 23N82W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 22N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 25N96W 22N95W 19N92W. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREAS
THAT ARE FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 90W AND 104W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTERIOR MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE
WEST OF 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 88W/89W FROM 23N TO 29N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN
86W AND 90W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGVX AND
KHQI. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS KCRH. ICAO STATION KEMK IS
REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN ONE MILE WITH HAZE. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE REPORTED IN THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST INTO
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...AND IN PARTS OF ALABAMA INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000
FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE COASTAL STATIONS OF THE
U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 70W TO
THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF
18N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REACHES HISPANIOLA
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W
AND 82W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA...TO
80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 84W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 8N
BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
16N TO THE WEST OF 79W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
24 HOUR FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
69W AND 72W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 70W TO
THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF
18N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REACHES HISPANIOLA
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF CUBA...ACROSS THE WINDWARD CHANNEL...TO HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 700 MB...500 MB...AND 250 MB SHOW THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO
27N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 29N TO
31N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF
26N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N40W 20N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 35N35W 32N37W 29N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 34W AND 37W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N46W...THROUGH 31N50W 28N63W TOWARD PUERTO RICO.
H 32N44W TO 29N58W AND 28N74W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 70W...EXCEPT FOR THE
35N35W 29N38W SURFACE TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 30 HOUR FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 45W AND
46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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