[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281131
TWDAT

ROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W TO THE SOUTH OF
19N...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN 9 TO 13 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N47W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 9N TO 14N
BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N52W 17N52W 12N51W
MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 9N TO 12N DRIFTING
WESTWARD. THE TROUGH IS THE REMNANT OF THE FORMER SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
9N TO 12N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
25N72W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N74W AND 12N74W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
HAITI DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY.
ISOLATED MODERATE SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE ALSO IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND
84W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
BELIZE AND SOUTHERN BELIZE/THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF SENEGAL
AND GUINEA NEAR 12N17W TO 11N24W 11N40W 11N52W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN 16W AND 23W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 27W
AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
TO 16N TO THE EAST OF 30W...FROM 2N TO 14N BETWEEN 33W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...COVERING PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS...THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 19N TO 29N BETWEEN 76W AND 90W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
AFFECTING SOME OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 80W
AND 82W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N80W 23N82W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N84W 27N82W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 21N TO 28N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

A THIN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM TEXAS TO MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ACROSS THE AREA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES
AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA.

A LOW CLOUD CEILING WITH A VISIBILITY LESS THAN 2 MILES AND FOG
COVERS ALICE TEXAS...AND TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE
IN THE COASTAL STATIONS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE
EAST OF 66W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CONNECTED TO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 18N48W 15N58W...
TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF THE FLORIDA
STRAITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 80W ALONG
11N/12N...ALONG 11N/12N BEYOND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS
TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 77W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
24 HOUR FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
72W AND 75W.

HISPANIOLA...

HISPANIOLA STILL FINDS ITSEL TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
25N72W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N74W AND 12N74W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
HAITI DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY.
ISOLATED MODERATE SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE ALSO IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 700 MB...500 MB...AND 250 MB SHOW THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO
30N64W AND 28N71W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO
31N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N75W 29N77W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 55W AND 72W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N34W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 28N38W AND 25N53W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN
32W AND 36W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF
27N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18N48W
15N58W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 66W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 29N58W AND 28N74W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO
THE EAST OF 74W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN
39W AND 46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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