[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 280550
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED WHILE IT
DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALMOST MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
FORM AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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