[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 261437
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013
1000 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THAT FERNAND CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND
OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN
DISRUPTED BY THE INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND FERNAND HAS WEAKENED
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO...IF
NOT SOONER.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/8 KT.  THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
UNTIL DISSIPATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 20.3N  97.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 20.9N  98.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  27/1200Z 21.4N  99.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



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