[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0300 UTC A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W MOVING SLOWLY WNW. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-95W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N30W TO
8N31W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS INDICTAED BY THE GOES-R RGB AIRMASS PRODUCT...
AND SSMI IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 20N61W TO
10N63W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 60W-70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT
12N16W TO 12N30W TO 10N41W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N41W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 8N60W. A SMALL 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED
N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 12N45W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE LOW. BESIDES THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-15N BETWEEN 12W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE
THE SPEACIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND
OVER S MEXICO AND EXTENDS S OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 93W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N95W TO
24N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 90W-93W. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO
OVER THE N FLORIDA AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 26N101W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THR YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
OVER THE NE GULF PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
25N-30N BETWEEN 82W-89W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
LOW TO MOVE WNW WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE
N GULF DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ALSO EXPECT THE COLF FRONT
TO DIP TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               A
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W/63W. SEE
ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 85W. ELSEWHERE...A
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 11N.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 12N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH
CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...
PRESENTLY SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE W OVER CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA FROM 34N70W TO 31N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1034 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE AZORES AT 44N26W
PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN 20N-30N E OF 50W WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE PRODUCING
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF
THE COLD FRONT TO DIP TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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