[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 250004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N89W...CUTTING ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF GUATEMALA...THROUGH THE REST OF GUATEMALA...TO 11N92W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N86W 21N90W 19N91W...IN
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN 93W AND
95W...IN SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA...AND ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES AS OF 24/1200
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...ARE 2.17 IN TEGUCIGALPA
HONDURAS...AND 1.21 IN MERIDA MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE
WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR
FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS DISTURBANCE IS
WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 30W AND 31W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N43W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N43W...TO 10N45W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 53W/54W TO THE SOUTH
OF 23N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N TO
25N BETWEEN 49W AND 58W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
20N60W...PASSING ACROSS GUADELOUPE...TO THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR
10N62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W...AND FROM 15N TO 16N
BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 16N17W TO
16N20W 12N30W 11N35W AND 10N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W...COVERING
INTERIOR SECTIONS AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA FROM GUINEA TO
SENEGAL. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 9W IN LIBERIA
AND 15W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 37W AND 39W...FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 9N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
28N84W 29N90W 26N94W IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 85W AND
92W.

A TROUGH IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 94W/95W FROM THE MEXICO
COAST TO 26N. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS IN NEAR 23N95W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ON TOP OF MEXICO ALONG 28N102W 24N101W 21N101W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 92W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 31N84W IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
26N84W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN FLORIDA TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FROM 28N TO 29N.

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA.
RAIN IS REPORTED FROM NEW IBERIA TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. MIDDLE
LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA THAT IS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A MIDDLE LEVEL
AND A HIGH CLOUD CEILING ARE OBSERVED IN VALPARAISO FLORIDA.
LIGHT RAIN IS OBSERVED IN MARIANNA FLORIDA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER COVER THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NAPLES TO TAMPA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT THE ICAO STATIONS KEIR AND KSPR.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGBK AND
KVAF. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 12
HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET WITHIN 180 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N93.5W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 24N68W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON
TOP OF THE BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 16N75W...TO 9N76W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DIRECTLY INTO HAITI.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN CUBA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS FROM
19N77W BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA...NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF CUBA TO 83W IN CUBA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
20N60W...PASSING ACROSS GUADELOUPE...TO THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR
10N62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W...AND FROM 15N TO 16N
BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES AS OF 22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.19 IN ST.
THOMAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 11N
BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...FROM 7N IN COLOMBIA TO 9N IN PANAMA
BETWEEN 77W AND 79W...AND FROM SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 76W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM
11.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W. EXPECT ALSO EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 83W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 24N68W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON
TOP OF THE BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 16N75W...TO 9N76W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DIRECTLY INTO HAITI.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN CUBA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS FROM
19N77W BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA...NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF CUBA TO 83W IN CUBA.

THE 700 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT BROAD EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE 500 MB GFS MODEL
SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS...TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE FOR THE REST OF THE
48 HOUR PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL
COVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BEING REPLACED
BY LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 28N58W 27N72W...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
24N TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET FROM 21N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 38W FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR
SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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