[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO
15N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS RELATED TO THE 45W TROPICAL WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE EXTENDS FROM CUBA
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN
80W AND 82W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF 22/1200
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.94 IN KINGSTON JAMAICA.

A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 77W/78W...FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...CROSSING JAMAICA...TO 11N. THE TROUGH IS
MOVING WESTWARD HAITI TOWARD THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 14N
TO 17N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. IT IS NOT
EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT ONLY IS WITH THE 81W/82W TROPICAL WAVE AND
ONLY WITH THE 77W/78W SURFACE TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 16N27W...11N40W AND
6N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 13N TO
THE EAST OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA FROM 29N TO 31N TO THE
WEST OF 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
19N85W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. IT ALSO IS FOUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTH TEXAS SURFACE RIDGE.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
MEXICO NEAR 26N105W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO...
TEXAS...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 96W
AND 110W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 94W.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 22N TO
29N TO THE WEST OF 94W IN THE GULF WATERS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
LOUISIANA...TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 20N98W.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD LAYERS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COAST AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM VICTORIA
TEXAS TO PALACIOS AND TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW
CLOUD CEILING COVERS LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING
IS AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST...AND INTO MOBILE ALABAMA.
HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE COVER
THE FLORIDA GULF FROM MARY ESTHER TO VALPARAISO TO DESTIN.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS COVER FLORIDA FROM
APALACHICOLA TO TALLAHASSEE TO PERRY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 87W. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
REPORTED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND AT THE NAVAL
AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING...HAZE...AND A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR
LOWER IS BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KSPR. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS ALSO ARE AT THE ICAO STATIONS KMDJ AND KDLP. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE EXTENDS FROM CUBA
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN
80W AND 82W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF 22/1200
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.94 IN KINGSTON JAMAICA.

A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 77W/78W...FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...CROSSING JAMAICA...TO 11N. THE TROUGH IS
MOVING WESTWARD HAITI TOWARD THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 14N
TO 17N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. IT IS NOT
EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT ONLY IS WITH THE 81W/82W TROPICAL WAVE AND
ONLY WITH THE 77W/78W SURFACE TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N61W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AND TO 16N69W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND MOVES ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
17N...ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 19N...BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 67W AND
70W...AND CROSSING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM
MARTINIQUE TO GUADELOUPE.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM 16N TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN 80W AND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG 93W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 19N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE 81W/82W
TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ALSO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N82W ALONG
THE COAST OF NORTHERN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 78W AND
THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 12N
TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N61W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AND TO 16N69W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND MOVES ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

THE 700 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
START ALONG 22N64W 21N67W 20N69W...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH MOSTLY WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLAND. THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
BE ALONG THE LINE OF PUERTO RICO...65W/66W...FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ENDING ALONG THE LINE OF CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...
71W/72W...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS
FORECAST SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA WITH
AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO
27N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 26N TO
28N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO
27N56W 23N61W TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO...TO 16N69W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N54W TO 28N60W 29N66W AND 32N70W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 90 NM TO 180 NM TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 27N58W 27N63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF 27N63W 27N67W 32N72W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N30W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
23N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
34N30W.

A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N76W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO
THE WEST OF 72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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