[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N26W TO 17N30W TO 10N33W MOVING W
AT 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
12N32W. THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A AN AREA OF
MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM N OF
HISPANIOLA AT 21N70W TO THE COAST OF NW VENEZUELA AT 11N71W
MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE
MAXIMUM ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 66W-71W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-73W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
N VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-74W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 28N89W TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18N92W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER S LOUISIANA...AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
11N30W TO 08N40W TO 08N45W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N45W TO 11N54W TO 12N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 25W.
A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ NEAR 12N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF BARBADOS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 58W-
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SEE ABOVE.
FURTHER E... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE W
COAST OF FLORIDA N OF FORT MYERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER W
CUBA W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N101W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER TAMPA FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE W GULF WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER W CUBA...THE EASTERN TIP OF
CUBA...AND JAMAICA. FURTHER S...A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N
COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
12N BETWEEN 75W-85W TO INCLUDE N COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
20N84W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N76W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS HIGH ENHANCED THE CONVECTION E
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...
CONVECTION OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE...AND FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH CONVECTION.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOGETHER WITH MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS. FURTHER E...A 1022 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N70W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N32W. THE
REMNANTS OF ERIN IS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N49W TO 17N49W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
30N68W. A SMALL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N56W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N40W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT CONTINUED
SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND PRODUCE CONVECTION N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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