[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N22W 13N25W 8N27W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS
AROUND THE WAVE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 20N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 30W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BROKEN UP BY THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N16W 10N23W 7N30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS ALONG 23N84W...NEAR
THE COAST OF CUBA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO
19N86W...TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA 17N85W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.

A SECOND ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS ALONG 21N67W FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 14N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MOSTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN
63W AND 66W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BROKEN UP BY THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE 19N22W 13N25W 8N27W TROPICAL WAVE. THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N30W 7N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N39W TO 8N47W AND 10N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST/SW LOUISIANA TO
20N102W IN MEXICO. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF TEXAS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 29N91W 26N95W...TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N96W...TO 20N95W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
BETWEEN 91W AND 97W FROM THE MEXICO COAST TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
COASTAL WATERS.

NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE 17N85W CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...AND WHERE THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE
DOMINANT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST
OF 90W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 92W. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT IS ALONG
31N/32N.

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN
KINGSVILLE TEXAS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER SOUTH CENTRAL
COASTAL LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AROUND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA FROM NEW ORLEANS TO SLIDELL...AND
EASTWARD TO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND
RAIN ARE IN MOBILE ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN
PENSACOLA TO THE NAVAL AIR STATION AT WHITING FIELD IN MILTON
FLORIDA...AND SIMILAR SKIES HAVE BEEN FOUND FROM MARY ESTHER TO
DESTIN DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. CLEARING SKIES ARE IN PANAMA
CITY AFTER EARLIER MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS...AND IN
APALACHICOLA AFTER EARLIER MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN. PERRY FLORIDA IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND NEARBY
RAINSHOWERS. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS IN NAPLES AND A HIGH CLOUD
CEILING IS AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. FAIR SKIES/
CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGUL AND KEMK. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AND/OR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS... KVAF AND KHQI.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
IT IS ALONG 23N84W...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...TO 19N86W...TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. THIS WAVE
IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 17N85W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. IT IS ALONG 21N67W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING
PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N66W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOSTLY IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N62W 11N63W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W.

OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 80W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES AS OF 19/1200 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN...ARE MERIDA 0.51...GUADELOUPE 0.39...ST. THOMAS
0.34...AND TRINIDAD 0.19.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND 90W/91W...FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
SOUTHWARD. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N85W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL NICARAGUA...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...
ALONG A 16N EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 85W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
13N TO THE WEST OF 76W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

HISPANIOLA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS ALONG 21N67W FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...CROSSING PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
14N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MOSTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND
66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN HAITI WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...ALONG A 16N EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE 700 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE ISLAND
FOR THE SECOND 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH
MOVES WESTWARD TO A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE
500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN AN INVERTED
TROUGH FOR THE ENTIRE TIME. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS
THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA WITH
AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 27N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N48W...TO THE CENTER...TO 24N60W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO
29N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 20W AND 35W. THIS WIND FLOW
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE AZORES.

A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N52W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N
TO 15N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N42W...TO A SECOND 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N62W...TO A THIRD 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N70W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF
80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...REMNANTS OF
ERIN...NEAR 20N42W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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