[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 182032
TCDAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013
500 PM AST SUN AUG 18 2013

ERIN HAS LACKED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 120 N MI OF ITS CENTER FOR
OVER 12 HOURS...AND NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.  THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY DRY LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR
IN THE PATH OF THE REMNANT LOW WHICH SHOULD DISCOURAGE ATTEMPTS AT
REGENERATION.

THE LOW HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST...OR 260/7...WITHIN
THE TRADEWIND FLOW.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS IDENTITY IN A FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUITE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 20.4N  39.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 20.2N  41.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/1800Z 20.0N  43.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0600Z 19.7N  45.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1800Z 19.4N  47.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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