[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 180834
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013
500 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERIN CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE WITH THE CYCLONE
ONCE AGAIN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 30 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA. ERIN IS
ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW...AND THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE
OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...STABLE AIR...AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROMOTE ITS DEGENERATION TO OCCUR IN 24 TO 36
HOURS...OR EVEN SOONER. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS
OF ERIN DISSIPATING OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITHIN A
FEW DAYS.

SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT...SINCE
THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 280/8 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED
SOUTHWARD AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 20.7N  38.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 21.0N  39.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 21.4N  41.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 21.7N  44.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0600Z 22.0N  46.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



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