[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N 34.5W AT 17/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 620 NM W-NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 14
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUST TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 31W-
36W.

THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 17/0300 UTC CONSISTS OF A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N90W THROUGH A WEAK 101 MB
LOW NEAR 21N92W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. A MID/UPPER LOW IS TO
THE NE NEAR 23N90W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
E OF THE LOWS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA DRAWING THE MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NE
OF THE LOW SYSTEM. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY
COVERING MOST OF THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW GENERALLY MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N54W
TO 10N54W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N68W
TO 12N70W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. PORTION OF THE WAVE N OF 16N IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE COVERING THE AREA FROM
PUERTO RICO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 60W-70W
INCLUDING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 10N19W THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. ERIN NEAR
14N36W AND CONTINUES THROUGH A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N45W TO
10N52W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 8N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE
FROM 6N18W TO JUST INLAND OVER GUINEA NEAR 10N13W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-13N
BETWEEN 40W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ACTIVITY OVER E GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS AND SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SW GEORGIA INTO
THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY TO A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR NEW ORLEANS
THEN RE-EMERGING INTO THE GULF OVER ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA TO
NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM S OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF TEXAS TO BETWEEN BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI. A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO COVERING THE SW GULF S OF
24N W OF 94W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS AN AXIS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE E GULF TO
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC DRAWING MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE
E GULF. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL FEATURES IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO MOVE NW TONIGHT MOVING TO THE W/CENTRAL GULF LATE SUN
THEN MOVING INLAND OVER EXTREME SE TEXAS COAST LATE MON...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH MON.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH
WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 19N86W AND
EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC.
THIS IS INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM W PANAMA ACROSS JAMAICA AND THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 72W-80W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 77W TO
INLAND OVER PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NE
CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND SAT BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ON SUN. A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND
MON AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI IN THE GULF OF
GONAVE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HISPANIOLA
TONIGHT AND SAT BRINGING THESE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MORE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND LATE SUN THROUGH TUE
INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
24N-30N BETWEEN 75W-78W PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT IS N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N W OF 76W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT IN N TO NEAR 31N ON SAT AND SUN AND
SHIFT N OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THE N PORTION OF CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SW ATLC THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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