[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 162030
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013
500 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ERIN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL
WITH SMALL PATCHES OF CONVECTION. SINCE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF
THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
30 KT. THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY LIES OVER 25-26C WATERS AND IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH ERIN WILL BE
MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS
BEFORE...AND KEEPS ERIN STEADY STATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ERIN COULD
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR AN OPEN TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS SHOWN BY SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

ERIN REMAINS ON TRACK...AND IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 KT.  A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE DEPRESSION FEELS
SOME INFLUENCE FROM A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SLIGHT
BEND TO THE LEFT IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN ERIN LIES
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD
ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED
NORTHWARD FOR THIS ADVISORY TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 17.7N  33.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 18.8N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 19.8N  37.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 20.4N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 20.9N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 22.7N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 25.0N  50.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 28.0N  53.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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