[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 30.5W AT 16/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 375 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 14
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUST TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 29W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 16/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM 14N90W THROUGH THE 1009 MB
LOW NEAR 21N91W OVER S MEXICO TO 15N91W. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO S OF LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
24N91W AND IN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN W OF 86W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IF THE
LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...HOWEVER...IT
WOULD MOVE INTO A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N48W
TO 11N  48W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
22N61W TO 12N61W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-22N
BETWEEN 56W-67W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO 15N21W THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. ERIN NEAR
13N33W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N38W 12N46W TO 10N51W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 7N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 33W-
55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ACTIVITY IN THE SE GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS AND A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF WATERS
EXTENDING FROM 30N88W ALONG 28N91W TO 26N95W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE TROUGH. A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER TAMPICO MEXICO COVERING
THE W GULF S OF 29N W OF 91W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 24N89W DRAWING MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF. TROPICAL
WAVE/LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF BY MON AND INLAND
OVER FAR NE TEXAS OR SW LOUISIANA LATE MON INTO TUE. THE LOW
WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC.
THIS IS INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PANAMA TO HAITI. THE ACTIVITY
OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 82W TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NE CARIBBEAN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR
CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SAT NIGHT
BEFORE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ON SUN. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SUN EVENING AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN MON INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVES.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SAT WHEN AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND THE E
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND SAT AND SAT
NIGHT INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND
LATE MON AND TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC S OF 32N
W OF 72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-
30N W OF 75W INCLUDING S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE E
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N63W TO 23N68W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N57W AND EXTENDING INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
LIFTING N SAT AND SUN AS THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE FAR SW ATLC THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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