[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 161145 CCA
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED AND LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IF THE LOW MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  IF THE
LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...HOWEVER...IT WOULD MOVE INTO
A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR
TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI


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