[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N34W
THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N35W TO 7N35W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 RADIUS OF 12.5N37W.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N59W TO
10N60W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE TO
THE E OF DRY STABLE AIR WITH THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWING THE WAVE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE MOISTURE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60/75 NM OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 12N-16N INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAS CONVERTED TO A
TROPICAL WAVE AT 13/0000 UTC. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE
TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N71W ACROSS HAITI TO 12N75W. AN AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM
COLOMBIA TO OVER HISPANIOLA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N24W 12N32W THROUGH THE
1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N35W TO 7N41W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N47W TO 9N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N TO THE MONSOON TROUGH E
OF 29W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 30W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER W TEXAS EXTENDING AN AXIS E
ACROSS THE SE CONUS TO GEORGIA COVERING THE NW GULF. A BROAD
UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 22N89W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N89W TO OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN TO 17N93W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE S GULF S OF 23N W OF 82W
AND ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 23N E OF 84W. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE N GULF
WITH A 1018 MB HIGH OVER PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE E GULF FROM THE
NW CARIBBEAN LATE THU GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE NE GULF COAST
SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF 16N W OF 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
N OF 18N W OF 77W INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 13N74W. THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE
DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES. SEE ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N78W
CROSSING COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF
17N TO THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 76W-85W. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN AND MERGE WITH THE
SURFACE LOW THROUGH WED NIGHT MOVING N OF THE AREA THEREAFTER.
THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT DISSIPATING BY TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER E CARIBBEAN SAT.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING
TO DISSIPATE OVER HAITI AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W OF THE ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE E WED DECREASING THE CHANCE
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION UNTIL SAT WHEN INCREASE OF MOISTURE MOVES
IN. THERE STILL REMAINS THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 62W TO OVER N FLORIDA/
GEORGIA AND ANCHORED NEAR 32N71W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N59W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO 23N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 26N-30N BETWEEN 55W-62W AND N OF 29N
BETWEEN 62W-65W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH NEAR 33N43W AND A 1025 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES. GOES R
INDICATES AN AREA OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST N OF 20N E OF 30W WITH A
MODERATE SWATH WITHIN 250/300 NM OF LINE FROM 23N30W TO 14N47W.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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