[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N27W 16N28W 13N28W.
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
13N28W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N30W 20N37W 10N41W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
27W AND 32W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA WHERE A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALREADY HAS BEEN IN PLACE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO
31N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 19N16W TO
17N20W...TO THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
13N28W...TO 8N40W AND 7N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N43W TO
7N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N17W 11N19W 10N24W 9N31W 9N35W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N80W...JUST OFF THE COAST OF CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 74W AND 90W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
HAITI...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO 27N84W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH
OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N96W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
21N96W 18N93W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 93W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N73W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W...TO 26N94W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW
CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED IN ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KCRH. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W
AND 60W...AND FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N65W 14N66W...TO 10N66W AT THE COAST
OF VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.61 FOR CURACAO...AND
0.53 FOR GUADELOUPE.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF
80W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N72W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO
12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 13N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 14N
TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.

HISPANIOLA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAS
ENDED. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND.

THE 700 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE TROUGH
ACTUALLY STARTS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...AND IT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
WESTWARD IN ORDER TO BE ON TOP OF CUBA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT
HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH. THE TROUGH
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD...TO BE ON TOP OF CUBA...AND THEN TO
REMAIN IN THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR 250 MB STARTS WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. A RIDGE FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH. THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD AND A SECOND TROUGH STARTS TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N55W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N55W...TO 25N60W...TO A 24N70W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO A 22N80W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 49W/50W FROM 22N TO 29N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 70W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20W TO THE EAST OF 46W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 33N38W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 17N TO 23N TO THE EAST OF 38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net