[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N25W TO 13N27W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE BASE OF THE WAVE HAS AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW AT 13N27W. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES FROM
08N-22N BETWEEN 15W-26W. CONVECTION REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N-
22N BETWEEN 13W-30W TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N48W TO 12N49W TO 7N47W MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE
SAHARAN DUST AREA. THIS DRY AIR AND DUST IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION AND THUS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 45W-50W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
13N27W TO 10N30W TO 7N44W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 7N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 15W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 17W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 22N96W TO 18N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 89W-93W. ELSEWHERE...FLORIDA AND THE E GULF
E OF 87W HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF
NEAR 22N95W. THIS IS THE MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE GULF.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 87W-98W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER S TEXAS AND MEXICO FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN 98W-101W.
EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BOTH MOVE W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A 1019 MB HIGH TO BE OVER
THE NE GULF IN 24 HOURS...AND THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO BE
OVER MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA WITH CONVECTION. FURTHER
MORE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA N OF COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 18N62W TO 12N61W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N75W MOVING W AND
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W... AND FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF
18N.

HISPANIOLA...
PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
EXPECT MORE AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N78W
MOVING W AND PRODUCING FAIR WEATER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FURTHER S OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 74W-78W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 29N48W TO
23N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH. A
LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS LOCATED GENERALLY N OF 10N E OF
55W. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH TO MOVE W
WITH MORE SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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