[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N23W 16N243W 11N24W...
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ALONG 10N36W 15N35W 22N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N45W 14N45W 9N43W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W
TO 10N30W 8N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N36W TO 4N43W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 24W AND 28W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND
REMAINING SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N TO THE
EAST OF 22W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N94W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N96W 17N92W. A 1013 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 22N94W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SPANS THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N73W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COASTAL PLAINS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT
SLIDELL LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND IN THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF VENEZUELA AND THE REST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N TO 13N
BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
13N TO 19N BETWEEN 57W AND 65W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE... MIATPTPAN...
IS 1.69 FOR GUADELOUPE. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
EAST OF 72W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 12N72W 14N80W TO 19N85W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
PANAMA...BEYOND 83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
6N TO 10N IN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 69W AND 81W...
INCLUDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF PANAMA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

HISPANIOLA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W...AND IN THE
COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF HISPANIOLA...
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-
TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. A CYCLONIC CENTER WILL BE JUST TO THE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TO
CUBA...PUTTING HISPANIOLA INTO A WEAK RIDGE BY THE END OF THE
48 HOUR PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH
32N52W TO 26N60W TO 25N70W TO 23N76W IN THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 77W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. PART OF THIS AREA IS
INCLUDED IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO
THE 17N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N
TO 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO
30N57W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N73W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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