[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N21W 16N23W 12N23W...
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ALONG 10N34W 15N32W 22N29W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 8N TO
20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W
TO 13N20W 10N30W 8N40W AND 7N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N43W
TO COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W...FROM
SENEGAL INTO MAURITANIA...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND
26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 13N17W 8N26W 6N31W...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 6N31W 5N35W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 5N35W 6N48W 8N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N94W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N96W 18N92W. A 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 22N94W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SPANS THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N87W.

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN MEXICO JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN THE NEW ORLEANS
METROPOLITAN AREA. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN VALPARAISO
NEAR DESTIN. THE VISIBILITY IN CRESTVIEW FLORIDA HAS BEEN AT OR
LESS THAN 1 MILE WITH FOG DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN...IS 1.69 FOR GUADELOUPE. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 12N72W 14N80W TO 19N85W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA... BEYOND 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
6N TO 10N IN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...AND
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8N79W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 79W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 71W AND 74W.

HISPANIOLA...

BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND IN THE
COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF HISPANIOLA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-
TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL COVER THE AREA. A CYCLONIC CENTER WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH
OF HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TO CUBA...PUTTING
HISPANIOLA INTO A WEAK RIDGE BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH
32N52W TO 26N60W TO 25N70W TO 23N76W IN THE BAHAMAS.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. PART OF THIS AREA IS
INCLUDED IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO
THE 17N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
30N60W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N76W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST FOR WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 18N TO 23N TO THE EAST OF 38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net