[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N38W 8N37W MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO
27N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W TO THE SOUTH OF 25N...FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MORE RELATED TO
THE 25N89W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO
11N27W 9N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N37W TO 5N44W AND 4N51W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N
TO 14N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 21W...AND FROM 5N TO 9N
BETWEEN 24W AND 27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N TO THE WEST OF 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N89W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF
93W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE 25N89W
CYCLONIC CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 90W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N95W 18N93W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
SOUTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE HOUSTON HOBBY
AIRPORT. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE OBSERVED
IN APALACHICOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED
AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS...KGUL AND
KDLP. MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT ICAO STATION KHQI. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 14N62W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 27N BETWEEN 44W AND 70W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND
64W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W
AND 71W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N...BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA...AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAIN IN COLOMBIA TO THE
NORTH OF 5N.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W.

HISPANIOLA...
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM A 1021
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N68W TOWARD HISPANIOLA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING
HISPANIOLA VIA THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. ISOLATED
MODERATE IS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE
COVERED BY A RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS...ENDING WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH BY THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD...GIVING
WAY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST STARTS WITH
HISPANIOLA IN A RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH FOR THE SECOND 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL START
BY BEING IN A RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN
HISPANIOLA WILL END UP BEING IN AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH
UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 16N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO
24N BETWEEN 67W AND 68W...AND FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 64W AND
67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N36W TO 30N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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