[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092320
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 23N36W TO
10N34W MOVING W 15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS TRAILING THE
WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH
DRY SAHARAN AIR PRECEDING THE WAVE AS SEEN ON GOES R IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 24N83W ACROSS W
CUBA TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS OVER
CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOSTLY
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AT
18N16W TO 13N20W TO 9N30W TO 8N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
19W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 32W-
38W...FRPM 6N-8N BETWEEN 47W-53W...AND FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 54W-
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N91W
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER LOUISIANA...THE W GULF...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND S MEXICO E OF 95W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR
25N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONCETION IS OVER THE E
GULF...FLORIDA ...AND W CUBA E OF 86W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W TO THE W GULF WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
CUBA...AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA N OF NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA... PANAMA
...AND COASTA RICA DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
NEAR 15N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 16N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS LOW IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 63W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N
TO HAVE CONTINUED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY HAITI IS EXPERIENCING AIRMASS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WHILE THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT MORE
DIURNAL CONVECTION TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N PRODUCING
MOSTLY 15 KT EASTERLY WINDS. GOES R SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
SAHARAN AIR N OF 10N E OF 55W. IN THE TROPICS...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-14N
BETWEEN 54W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 77W-80W. EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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