[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 22N29W TO
11N28W MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS TRAILING
THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
WITH DRY SAHARAN AIR PRECEDING THE WAVE AS SEEN ON GOES R
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N75W ACROSS CUBA
TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE
IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 12N28W TO 9N40W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N51W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-11N E OF 30W TO THE
COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM THE ITCZ TO 10N BETWEEN 56W-60W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC FROM 13N55W TO 9N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF INTO THE NW ATLC AND NW
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N88W TO THE N
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE E GULF E OF 92W. A WEAK 1014 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N91W WITH CLEAR SKIES COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE W ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SAT THEN INLAND OVER TEXAS AND
MEXICO SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. THE UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS S
OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 16N BETWEEN 70W-82W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W TO 21N84W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND E CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
N VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM 15N66W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 13N66W TO OFF THE COAST
OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND 68W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-79W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS MOVING OVER HAITI. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS MOVING W
AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE E MOVING TOWARD
THE ISLAND. THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS CLEARED THE ISLAND. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW ATLC
N OF 32N W OF 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 32N EXTENDING FROM E
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO BERMUDA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N58W ALONG 28N69W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
25N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90/120 NM N OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N76W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE N/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND COVERING THE W ATLC S OF 30N BETWEEN 67W-80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF
25N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 68W-80W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029
MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. GOES R SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
SAHARAN AIR N OF 20N E OF 35W AND FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 27W-55W.
W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT N AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE N OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SW ATLC THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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