[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 22N22W
TO 11N23W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS
TRAILING THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH DRY SAHARAN AIR PRECEDING THE WAVE AS SEEN ON GOES
R IMAGERY. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS S OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N67W TO THE COAST
OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS IN AN AREA
OF LIGHT MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W ALONG 10N26W TO 7N37W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N49W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-16N E
OF 20W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 26W-29W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC FROM 14N51W TO 11N52W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH S OF 13N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC AND NW
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER E TEXAS GIVING THE GULF N TO E FLOW
ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM
APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA ALONG 29N86W TO OFF THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS
NEAR 30N89W WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N84W
OFF FLORIDA TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR HAVANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 30N BETWEEN 84W-89W. A
1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N92W WITH CLEAR SKIES
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE GULF WILL SHIFT N TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OFF S FLORIDA
WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SAT THEN MOVE INLAND OVER
TEXAS SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N TO OVER W CUBA AND
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 81W-87W. THE UPPER LOW IN
THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO TO 13N
BETWEEN 68W-80W. CURRENTLY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN N OF 17N
BETWEEN 73W-79W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
OVER N VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 17N61W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 14N62W TO OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 9N62W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND 63W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS S
PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N W OF 80W. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE W CARIBBEAN FRI. SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE W THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY HISPANIOLA IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER. THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COVERS THE ENTIRE
ISLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT W WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE E MOVING OVER THE ISLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT
AND THU. THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 77W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
OF N OF 30N EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO NEAR 30N68W
SUPPORTING A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH 32N68W
TO 31.5N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE FROM 29N77W TO BEYOND 32N70W. AN UPPER LOW IS JUST
N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 24N72W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND COVERING THE W ATLC S OF 30N
BETWEEN 67W-77W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM
29N61W TO 25N67W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 AND A 1030 MB
HIGHS W OF THE AZORES. GOES R SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
SAHARAN AIR N OF 22N E OF 22W AND N OF 12N BETWEEN 22W-45W. A
DISSIPATING FRONT OVER NORTHERN WATERS WILL WEAKEN INTO A
SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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